Mid January in the Times Business & Money online there was a feature on a Princeton research study stating: Facebook Is About to Lose 80% of Its Users. Not even two weeks later, Facebook Inc.’s Market Value jumps to nearly $155 Billion and Sheryl Sandberg, Facebook’s COO, is now one of the youngest female billionaires ever.
The study released from Princeton Researchers on January 17, 2014 titled “Epidemiological modeling of online social network dynamics” takes epidemiological models to explain user adoption and abandonment of online social networks (OSNs). OSNs are compared to infectious diseases that spread between people before eventually dying out. Using Google search query data and MySpace as a validating model, the researchers suggest that Facebook has already reached the peak of its popularity and has entered a decline phase, which will undego a rapid demise, losing 80% of its peak user base between 2015 and 2017.
Analysts are not shy about sharing their concerns regarding the potential Facebook decline as the “younger teens” demographic has reached saturation and are looking for alternatives. Zuckerberg’s efforts to stay current and impressionable have included buying out the completion (e.g. Instagram) or competing head on (e.g.. Snapchat), which by the current market value, seems to be working.
Currently, 750 million Facebook users login every day and mobile is rapidly expanding amongst OSNs. More than $1 billion of the $2.6 billion in revenues for Facebook came from mobile advertising. Even in the mortgage industry, mobile searches have been on the rise and Facebook remains the most popular social media platform for mortgage-related research.
It’s hard to believe that with1.23 billion members, nearly half of the global population with internet access, Facebook could basically collapse and dye out within 2-3 years. But if a 23 year old can become a billionaire off one idea 10 years ago, then we’re in a day-in-age where anything is possible.
Happy 10th birthday Facebook. Wising you continued success over the next decade.
References Calgary Herald. URL http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Happy+Birthday+Facebook+Billions+dollars+billions+users+decade/9459832/story.html. Accessed 2014-02-02 International Business Times. URL http://www.ibtimes.com/facebook-incs-nasdaq-fb-market-value-jumps-nearly-155-billion-strong-earnings-report-1551726. Accessed 2014-02-02 CMHC. URL http://www.cmhc.ca/en/hoficlincl/moloin/cosu/loader.cfm?csModule=security/getfile&PageID=278459. Accesses 2014-02-02 CNN: URL http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/22/technology/facebook-sandberg-billionaire/. Accessed 2014-02-02 Time: http://business.time.com/2014/01/21/facebook-is-about-to-lose-80-of-its-users-study-says/?xid=newsletter-weekly. Accesses 2014-02-02
